Sadly, when discussing the current state of affairs in Haiti, the assassination of the president looms larger than anything else.
The assassination:
I wrote a post about the state of Haiti back in November 2019: https://cleanwaterforhaiti.org/i-dont-know-whats-going-on-in-haiti-but-im-trying-to-figure-it-out/ I think I ended up giving a pretty good explanation of the state of affairs in Haiti at the time. I just reread the post, and funnily enough I mentioned assassination:
“I don’t believe a new leader coming along is going to fix everything. It’s wishful thinking. As far as I can see, there are no “good guys”. Worse than that, if a “good guy” did come along, I don’t see how he/she could make a difference while working within Haiti’s political system. There are currently no consequences for a wide range of evil behaviors if you are part of the political or elite social class. A well-intentioned leader, focused on eliminating corruption, would likely find themselves assassinated.”
Jovenel Moise was, in fact, assassinated by unknown forces in 2021. Perhaps he really was focused on eliminating corruption, which is what some people believe. Others believe he was threatening to use incriminating information on other political actors who became afraid and angered enough to have him eliminated.
Ariel Henry took on the position of acting president after the assassination. At the time, someone else also claimed to be the legitimate acting president, but he backed down.
It’s important to ask whether the same forces which organized the assassination are now in charge of Haiti. I don’t know. However, it’s remarkable just how badly the investigation into the assassination has proceeded. That could mean that the guilty parties are actively impeding the investigation, or it could mean that the Haitian justice system is incapable of carrying out a complex investigation and prosecution with any kind of competence.
What is the current state of affairs?
Insecurity is by far the greatest problem facing the country. Different forces in Haiti want to either hold elections immediately or postpone elections until the country is secure enough to hold elections that will be safe and fair.
Holding elections at the moment is wildly impractical. Haiti is a mess. Banditry is very widespread and gangs are active in more and more places. Whole trucks laden with goods are stolen and drivers kidnapped. Taptap drivers typically pay a protection fee to their local gang so that they can run their route. Guns have been coming in through the ports so the authorities have started to search every container thoroughly. It takes a lot of time and energy to remove every item from every container and then put it back again, so clearing customs and getting a container released has become extremely difficult. Shortages have become more common, especially for gasoline and diesel. As of this writing, not a single gas station within 30 miles of us is pumping fuel.
Improving security to the point where it is possible to have safe and fair elections also seems to be wildly impractical. A new police chief was appointed who seems to be making slow progress against the gangs. However, the main courthouse in Port au Prince was taken over by a gang two months ago and the police still haven’t taken it back. Perhaps progress is being made anyway, but I can’t see it. It’s certainly true that political actors will fund certain gangs at certain times for political ends, which makes policing much, much harder. A growing trend is for policemen to be hired by private parties to guard shipments and transportation around the country for businesses. This means fewer policemen are doing their jobs as they try to make money on the side.
How is the situation going to improve?
I have no idea. I don’t see any hope for the near future. It seems like people are waiting for another foreign intervention. I don’t think that this will happen any time soon, and I’m not even sure that it’s a good idea. The head of the Organization of American States (OAS) strongly believes an international intervention needs to happen. This statement was released August 8: https://www.oas.org/en/media_center/press_release.asp?sCodigo=E-045/22 It’s full of good points, but there are a lot of points that aren’t addressed. I think it’s worth reading because the sum total of the international response now is little more than “thoughts and prayers” but the statement reads as an inspiring call to action.
Another solution would be a breaking of the political deadlock to create a plan to move ahead. That’s not going to happen. The assassination looms over everything, it’s not clear who is in charge anyway, and there are too many people, hungry for power, who are willing to use violence and threat of violence to get that power. I don’t really believe that the international community thinks this is going to happen even though they consistently say that this is what they want to work towards.
It’s possible that the international community, led by the USA, has decided that the 36 years of involvement in Haiti since Duvalier left has been a waste of resources, and that Haiti was better off with a strongman in charge. I have been consistently told by older Haitians that everything was fine under Duvalier, just so long as you didn’t say anything bad about the government. It might not be a stretch to say that many Haitians long for those days. It’s possible that Haiti, and the international community that watches, is waiting for a strongman to emerge along with the inevitable rise in extrajudicial killings to get the country back under control.
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